First Warning Forecast: Rain, wind, and flooding from Maria

Meteorologist Madeline Evans’ First Warning Forecast

***A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the North Carolina coast from Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

*** Storm Surge Warning for Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras.

*** Storm Surge Watch for Cape Hatteras to Duck.

 

Tropical Storm Maria moving north just off of the Carolina coast… Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue through the evening with gusty winds and showers. There will be waves of off and on showers throughout the day. Most areas will see very little rainfall but enough to make it a messy day. Hampton Roads is expected to have up to 1/2″ of rain and the Outer Banks up to 1″ possible. Northeast winds will continue to ramp up today. Most areas will see wind gusts to near 35 mph. Gusts to 40+ mph are possible for the VA coast and 50+ for the NC coast.

Tomorrow will be more of the same with scattered showers and strong winds. The strong and persistent NE/N winds will trigger some tidal flooding. “Minor” level tidal flooding is possible near times of high tide today, Wednesday, and into Thursday. We will likely see areas of coastal flooding and ocean overwash with a storm surge of 2’ to 4’ possible for the Outer Banks.

For the weekend we look much better. Saturday and Sunday only reaching highs in the low 70’s and overnight lows possibly dipping into the 50’s. Rain chances will hover at only 10% for the entire weekend.

 

Here is a breakdown of what to expect from Maria…

 

Wind

VA Beach: 20-30 G40

Outer Banks: 35-45 G55

Eastern Shore: 20-25 G40

 

Rain

VA Beach: ½” or less

Outer Banks: ~1”

Eastern Shore: ½” or less

 

Surge

VA Beach: 1-2’

Outer Banks: 2-4’

Eastern Shore: 1-2’

 

Waves

VA Beach: 12-16’

Outer Banks: 16-21’

Eastern Shore: 12-16’

 

Tidal Flooding

“Minor” level tidal flooding possible Tuesday PM, Wednesday, and Thursday.

 

NOTE: Impacts will be more significant to the SE and less significant to the NW.

 

 

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (40%), Windy. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds: NE 15-25 G35+

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (40%), Windy. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: NE 15-25 G35+

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers (40%), Windy. Highs in the low 80s. Winds: N 15-25 G35+

 

Weather & Health 

Pollen: Low-Moderate (Ragweed, Grasses)

UV Index: 5 (Moderate)

Air Quality: Good (Code Green)

Mosquitoes: Extreme

 

Tropical Update

Tropical storm force winds nearing the Outer Banks. Maria is centered about 175 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, NC and moving north at 7 mph. This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the NNE is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or so.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles.

11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 26

Location: 33.6°N 73.1°W

Moving: N at 7 mph

Min pressure: 971 mb

Max sustained: 75 mph

 

Hurricane Lee is gradually strengthening over the open Atlantic. Lee is centered about 675 miles east of Bermuda. On the current track, Lee will remain over the open waters of the central to northern Atlantic with no threat to land.

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 26

Location: 29.9°N 53.7°W

Moving: W at 10 mph

Min pressure: 975 mb

Max sustained: 105 mph

 

Hurricane Tracker

 

Today in Weather History (NWS Wakefield)

September 26th

1993 Severe Thunderstorm Damage: Louisa Co

 

 

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