Chief Meteorologist Patrick Rockey's First Warning Forecast
It has been 1069 days since our last measurable snow in Hampton Roads. But we have two chances to change that over the next few days.
A fast-moving system brings the chance for a brief snow shower late Friday evening.
The best chance for any accumulating snow with this system will be on the northern Eastern Shore. While most of us probably won't see accumulating snow, driving conditions could get dangerous in some spots as temperatures drop.
A potentially bigger system moves in Sunday evening. Our two longer-range models are not in agreement about that all important rain/snow line.
The European forecast model paints in mainly rain, except in our northern communities on the Eastern Shore and Middle Peninsula. This models shows a transition to all rain early Monday morning and through the day.
According to the EURO, we then could see a quick transition back to a wintry mix on Monday evening. Accumulation, if any, should be fairly light.
My big concern is Monday evening as arctic air rushes into the region. We could see a brief transition back to snow. and then a quick drop in temperatures that could create icy road conditions.
Meanwhile, while the GFS is more aggressive with snow at the onset. It shows a better chance for snow and/or a wintry mix all the way into eastern North Carolina. Like the EURO, the GFS shows a transition to rain early Monday morning and mainly rain throughout the day.
But this model keeps the moisture around through the evening an overnight hours of Tuesday morning, leaving to a return to snow and higher snowfall totals.
Potentially the bigger weather story next week will be a prolonged arctic blast. We're expecting a number of bitterly cold and windy mornings with wind chills in the teens and even single digits. Stay tuned.
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