Chief Meteorologist Patrick Rockey's First Warning Forecast
I'm typing this close to 24 hours from the first flakes and this developing storm system is keeping us guessing.
Right now, it looks like this could be a significant snow for the North Carolina coast, with a lower impact the farther north you go.
As a system off the coast moves by us, we expect snow to develop on the Outer Banks in the late afternoon hours. Because it will be so chilly, whatever snow falls should stick pretty quickly.
Moisture will move north after that, spreading snow across the Albemarle, then the Southside and eventually to the Peninsulas and Eastern Shore. The snow will be moving into very dry air, limiting how much will actually fall. More on that in just a second.
The storm should move in and out fairly quickly and most of us won't have snow falling when we wake up on Wednesday morning. However, with a gusty northeast wind whipping down the Chesapeake Bay, we could see some Bay-effect snow showers through Wednesday morning.
But there are 3 main variables that have me worried. First, the storm track continues to be a big question mark. If the moisture stays a little south of what we're thinking, this could be a nothing burger for us. If the moisture jogs a few miles north, this could be far more significant.
Our air at the ground is very dry. That will gobble up a lot of the moisture in the first few hours, meaning less snow.
On the other hand, the air will be very cold, which leads to fluffier snow that accumulates more.
The bust potential for the storm is high. But right now I think most of us will see some accumulating snow, with more along the Carolina coast and much less on the Peninsulas and Eastern Shore.
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