Meteorologist Kristy Steward's First Warning Forecast
Happy Thursday evening! All eyes are on Ian as it inches its way up the East Coast. We have already started to notice some impacts from Ian and there’s a lot more on the way.
Friday we will catch the brunt of Ian, however, local impacts will continue into Tuesday. After Midnight tonight, widespread rain starts to push into Hampton Roads. Expect light to moderate rain for the morning commute. As the day goes on, rain will become heavier and we’ll have embedded strong to severe storms. So, plan for a rough afternoon and evening commute. Everyone is under a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms.
All threats are on the table, but we are mainly concerned with spin-up tornadoes. Severe storms are more likely in the afternoon and evening hours.
Outside of the rain and storms, winds will be strong Friday. Northeast winds 20-35 MPH , gusting to 50 MPH. Secure any loose outdoor items you don’t want blown away. With those strong northeast winds, tidal flooding will be prevalent. Expect around 2 feet of inundation at high tide Friday afternoon, Saturday night, and Saturday afternoon. Some roads will be flooded and impassable. Remember: Turn around, don’t drown.
The surf will also be extremely rough. Expect 9-11 feet waves in the Atlantic and 6-7 feet waves in the Chesapeake Bay.
We’ll have off and on rounds of scattered showers and storms this weekend. Temperatures will briefly get a bit warmer too. Highs in the upper 70s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday. We stay windy this weekend. As Ian travels more west of us, our tidal flooding will improve. The northeast winds will shift to more southerly winds and water recedes to its normal levels for Sunday.
Later this weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure over the northeastern United States steers Ian’s remnants back east and we’ll see another round of rain Monday into Tuesday. Finally, by the second half of the workweek, we’ll dry out and see the sun again.
Temperatures this week will be a bit up and down. After a weekend in the mid to upper 70s, highs cool to the upper 60s for the start of the week and rise into the mid 70s after we dry out and see more sunshine later in the week.
Tropical Update:
Ian is a Category 1 hurricane with 75 MPH sustained winds. It’s located 215 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina and is traveling north-northeast at 10 MPH. Ian is forecast to make a third landfall along the South Carolina border Friday midday. It will again weaken as it travels northwest into North Carolina. Ian's remnants will eventually get swept up in another system and pushed back east in our direction this weekend. Locally, we will see very strong east-northeast winds 25-35 MPH with gusts of 50 MPH, minor to moderate tidal flooding, waves of rain dumping 3-6" of rainfall, and up to 11 feet breaking waves in the Atlantic. Local impacts from Ian will be felt from late Thursday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Duck county, North Carolina south.
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