Weather

Actions

First Warning Forecast: Area groundhogs predict an early Spring. Could they be on to something?

metompkin max groundhog.jpg
Posted
and last updated

Meteorologist Kristy Steward's First Warning Forecast

Happy Groundhog Day! The big question today.. Will we see an early Spring or longer Winter?

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, predicting 6 more weeks of winter. However, our local prognosticators, Chesapeake Chuck and Metompkin Max on the Eastern Shore, say differently. They did not see their shadows and are predicting an early Spring for Hampton Roads. Groundhog forecasts have about a 40% accuracy, so about the same as flipping a coin, but I think our local groundhog forecasters are onto something!

Looking ahead at the temperature outlook for February, the Climate Prediction Center is showing above normal temperatures. Looking even farther ahead through the next 3 months, the outlook still shows above normal temperatures. In fact, we’ll actually get a nice taste of Spring starting next week. Before the warmth though, we have a couple frigid days to get through.

CPC Temp.png

Tonight, scattered rain showers continue across northeastern North Carolina. Showers will end earlier Friday morning with a cold front passing through, putting an end to our week-long unsettled stretch. Clouds eventually begin to clear out behind the front Friday afternoon. It will also get windy. Sustained northerly winds 15-25 MPH gusting to 30 MPH in the afternoon.

ADI Wind Forecast.png

That will help usher in colder air, meaning temperatures will be gradually dropping throughout the entire day Friday. Highs in the low 40s can be expected for your morning commute, but pack an extra layer for later in the day. By the time you head home from work, temperatures will be in the lower 30s.

Vert Planner 3 - Hourly.png

Temperatures continue to cool under a clear sky and with breezy winds Friday night. Lows in the mid teens to around 20°, feeling like the single digits and low teens. Stay inside if you can Friday night and Saturday morning, or at least have several layers on.

Saturday is going to stay cold despite the full sunshine. Highs in the mid 30s feeling like the mid to upper 20s. If you’re doing the Polar Plunge, you may want to just sit in that 40° water a while before braving the cold air when you come out again!

It will be very cold, but if you’re trying to view the green comet, Friday and Saturday nights look the best for viewing right now. Saturday night will have temperatures in the upper 20s.

After that quick Arctic blast, Spring weather arrives. Temperatures soar into the mid 50s Sunday under a mostly cloudy sky and keep climbing into the mid 60s by Wednesday. A slight drop in temperatures Thursday, but still warmer than normal near 60°.

Temperature Bar Graph - 5 Day.png

We will stay in a mostly dry pattern this weekend through next week and finally get to keep more sunshine around for a while.

Connect with Meteorologist Kristy Steward:
FACEBOOK
TWITTER
INSTAGRAM