Meteorologist Kristy Steward's First Warning Forecast
Happy Fourth of July! It has been a beautiful holiday. Lots of sunshine, high temperatures in the mid 80s and hardly any humidity. As you're heading out to watch fireworks tonight, temperatures will be around 80°. Since we stay with lower humidity, those firework displays should look more vibrant too!
Tonight, we will have a few passing clouds. A few showers are possible across the Middle Peninsula and Eastern Shore, but only a few sprinkles are likely. Most of us will remain dry. Lows drop to the mid to upper 60s.
Monday, the observed holiday, looks like pleasant weather again for any outdoor plans. If you're headed to the water, expect 1-2 foot waves in the Chesapeake Bay and 2-3 foot waves in the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic does have a moderate rip current risk Monday. Bring plenty of water and sunscreen! Lots of sunshine tomorrow, high temperatures around 90°, a bit more humid, and mostly dry.
Tuesday will be the hottest day this week. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s and increased humidity. Still dry with plenty of sunshine though. Wednesday is when our weather pattern begins to shift.
The high pressure system keeping our weather nice this weekend and into next week will move offshore, Elsa will approach from the southwest, and a system will begin approaching from the northwest. Being between all that activity, clouds begin to increase Wednesday. Right now, it looks like most areas remain dry Wednesday, but a few isolated storms can't be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will still be hot in the low 90s.
Elsa tracks through our portion of the east coast Thursday. Whether its center will pass right over us or to the east of us is still uncertain. Regardless, it looks close enough to us to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours at times throughout the entire day and night Thursday. It will also cool our temperatures down briefly to the mid 80s Thursday.
By Friday, Elsa will be well off to our northeast, but we will still have that system to our northwest slowly advancing towards us. Isolated storms are possible Friday with more scattered thunderstorm activity next weekend. A more typical summertime pattern. More heat and humidity, highs rise to 90° again.
Tropical Storm Elsa 11 PM Update:
Tropical Storm Elsa is located 165 miles east-southeast of Cabo Cruz, Cuba, 270 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba. It has sustained winds of 65 MPH and is traveling northwest at 15 MPH. Since the last update, Elsa has strengthened a bit and is now forecast to remain a Tropical Storm while it travels through the United States. It is still set to track through Cuba, the Florida Keys, across Florida, then up the East Coast. There is a Hurricane Warning in effect for central Cuba, a Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys and Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for southwest Florida. The cone of uncertainty has shifted a bit more east as Elsa moves along the coast. That is good news for us. Right now, it still looks like we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms from Elsa throughout the day Thursday with heavy downpours at times as its center could pass over the Outer Banks.
Meteorologist Kristy Steward
