HAMPTON ROADS, Va. — It’s probably no surprise to you that forecasting winter weather in our part of the world is complicated. Extremely complicated. But Mother Nature usually gives us some hints about what to expect.
This year, that hint is the global weather pattern called El Niño.
EL NINO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
I’m sure you’ve heard of El Niño. It’s when water in the Pacific Ocean near the Equator becomes unusually warm, which disrupts weather patterns across the globe.
When there’s a strong El Niño like we’re expecting this winter, we tend to see warmer temperatures in the northern half of the U.S. and wetter weather in the south.
But for our part of the world, the El Niño effect isn’t quite as clear.
Looking back at past winters with strong El Niños, some have been colder than normal and others have been warmer than normal. So El Niño is not a good indicator of winter temperatures where we live.
EL NINO IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION
But things are much clearer when it comes to precipitation: strong El Niño years produce wetter-than-normal winters. But more precipitation doesn’t necessarily mean more snow. And I know that’s what a lot of you are most interested in. There’s no correlation between our snowiest winters and strong El Niño seasons.
However, we have seen a few big snows during strong El Niños. In fact, our snowiest January on record came during the strong El Niño of 1966 when we received more than 14 inches of snow. And in January of 1973, a storm dumped more than 9 inches of snow.
OUR WINTER FORECAST
So the question on your mind is what can we expect this winter and here’s my answer: Overall I think it will be a warmer-than-normal winter in our part of the world, which works against seeing a lot of snow overall. But with above-average precipitation likely, I wouldn’t be surprised by one or two decent snowfalls over the next few months.
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