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GOP could clinch Senate control, but seat held by Virginia's Kaine will likely stay blue

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One U.S. Senate seat in Virginia is on the ballot this year, pitting incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine against Republican Hung Cao.

Recent polling has given Kaine the advantage going into Election Day. The Crystal Ball election forecasting at the University of Virginia says it's a safe seat for Democrats, and the Real Clear polling average currently gives Kaine an 11-percent advantage over Cao.

Watch: Race for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat pits Tim Kaine against Hung Cao

Race for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat pits Tim Kaine against Hung Cao

A Republican hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race in Virginia since John Warner in 2002. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner (no relation) won the seat vacated by John Warner upon his retirement.

What’s at stake?

There are 34 Senate seats up for reelection this year. Right now, Democrats have a razor-thin majority in the Senate.

Analysts say the race to control the Senate seems promising for Republicans. If the GOP flips one of the 23 seats currently held by a Democrat this election season — in addition to the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin, which they’re all but guaranteed to win — they’ll likely secure the majority in the upper chamber, analysts project.

Watch: Cost of living, military, port strike among topics during Cao, Kaine debate

Cost of living, military, port strike among topics during Cao, Kaine debate

Candidate bios

Kaine, a Richmond native, is seeking his third term in the U.S. Senate. He’s held several offices in Virginia over the past three decades, including mayor of Richmond and governor. He was Hillary Clinton’s running mate during her 2016 presidential run.

Cao came to the United States as a refugee from Vietnam. He served in the Navy for 25 years. This is his first time running in a state-wide race: he ran for Congress in Northern Virginia in 2022, but lost.

What issues are they running on?

Both candidates were interviewed by News 3’s Brendan Ponton. Kaine highlighted his work on improving the economy post-pandemic during his time in the Senate.

"I think I've worked very hard with this administration to get America growing again. We're manufacturing again. We're building again. We're investing in ships and subs. Unemployment is down," said Kaine.

Cao focused on problems at the border, calling it the biggest issue hitting our country.

"...Everything revolves around the border right now. It's about the millions of illegal aliens that have poured across this country, including tens of thousands of military-aged males," Cao said.