First Warning Forecast: Dorian tracks along the Georgia/South Carolina coasts as a major hurricane
**STORM SURGE WARNING: For Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Suffolk, Surry, Isle of Wight, James City, Williamsburg, Dare, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Chowan, Hertford, Bertie. Life-threatening storm surge possible.
**HURRICANE WARNING: For Dare, Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Hertford and Chowan counties including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. This means hurricane force winds in excess of 74 mph are expected within the next 36 hours.
**TROPICAL STORM WARNING: For Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, Franklin, Southampton, Surry, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, York, James City, Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Northampton (VA), Accomack, Gates, Hertford, Bertie, Northampton (NC). This means winds in excess of 39 mph are expected within the next 36 hours
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH: for Sussex County. This means tropical storm force winds in excess of 39 mph will be possible within the next 48 hours.
**FLASH FLOOD WATCH: For Northampton (VA), York, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Isle of Wight, Suffolk, Southampton, Franklin, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Northampton (NC), Hertford, Bertie, Gates, Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, Currituck, Dare. This means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.
**COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: For Gloucester, Middlesex, Mathews, York, Accomack, Northampton (VA). A Coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for flooding are expected to develop.
Expect overcast skies and muggy conditions with lows in the low 70s. Dorian will continue to move along the Carolina coast through Friday.
Thursday morning will be your last chance to get anything you need ahead of Hurricane Dorian. Skies will be overcast with the outer rain bands of Dorian moving in Thursday afternoon and evening from south to north. The wind will be light during the morning, but will pick up speed out of the northeast at 15-25 mph by the late afternoon. Expect high temperatures near 80 degrees. The heaviest rain will move in overnight and through most of the day Friday. Winds will also continue to pick up. Between the rain and the wind, be ready for a loud night.
We will feel the biggest impacts from Hurricane Dorian on Friday. Expect widespread heavy rain Friday morning, tapering off by late afternoon/evening. We could see 4-8 inches in the Flash Flood Watch areas. This includes all of northeastern North Carolina, and Northampton (VA), York, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Isle of Wight, Suffolk, Southampton, Franklin, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk and Virginia Beach, with locally higher totals possible.
Tropical storm (39+mph) force winds are likely for all of Hampton Roads and portions of North Carolina including Northampton, Herford, Gates, and Bertie County. Hurricane (74+ mph) force winds are likely for the Albemarle and on the Outer Banks, especially closer to Hatteras. The strongest winds will move in Friday morning through midday.
We will also see coastal flooding on Friday. Storm surge of 2-4 feet in Hampton Roads and the Albemarle, 3-6 feet for the Outer Banks is possible. One of the impacts we’re most worried about is tidal flooding. High tide at Sewells Point is at 4 PM on Friday. Right now, we could see major flooding. So even though the rain will be moving out, our problems will be just beginning. Many flood prone areas will become inundated and impassable during that time period.
Dorian will shoot off to the northeast Friday night and high pressure will build in just in time for the weekend. Expect clearing skies with low rain chances for the weekend. Temperatures will warm to the low and mid 80s. Expect rough surf and some coastal/tidal flooding to linger through the weekend.
Weather & Health
Pollen: Low (Ragweed, Grasses)
UV Index: 5 (Moderate)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Dorian is now a category 3 hurricane and is moving toward the north near 7 mph. A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated on Thursday, with a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 12 hours, followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is about 780 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving NW near 7 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in forward speed expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is then expected to begin by this weekend.
An area of low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms well to the southeast of the center. Only a small decrease in the upper level winds could result in the formation of a tropical depression in the next day or so. However, by Saturday upper-level winds are forecast to increase even further, making conditions unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (60%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (60%)
A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%)
* Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (50%)
Meteorologist April Loveland
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