First Warning Forecast: Potential impacts from Dorian on Thursday and Friday
Tracking Dorian…there is still uncertainty with the track of Dorian. Since we have a couple of days of fairly quiet weather ahead, it would be a good time to go over your hurricane plan and make sure you have your emergency kit stocked with water, canned food, batteries, etc. If we see impacts from Dorian, it would be on Thursday and Friday.
Swells from Dorian are already reaching us here in coastal Virginia and the OBX. Red flags will be flying at area beaches through the week due to a high risk of rip currents. The surf will get rougher as Dorian approaches.
Back to school for kids in Virginia on Tuesday! Temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70 as they head out to the bus. Some patchy fog is possible. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s. Keeping a slight 10 percent chance for a shower from a sea breeze, otherwise expect dry conditions as high pressure builds in.
The weather will continue to be fairly quiet on Wednesday. It will be a warmer with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Keeping a slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm due to a frontal system situated along the coast. The wind will continue to pick up and the surf will continue to get rougher as Dorian inches closer. We will also want to watch out for some tidal flooding at times of high tide.
***Potential impacts from Dorian will be felt on Thursday and Friday. We are still days out so forecasts may and will change.***
A cold front will move in and stall on Thursday. At the same time Dorian will be moving up the East Coast. Flooding, damaging wind gusts, rough surf, dangerous rip currents and tidal flooding will all be issues we will have to watch out for. Right now, we could see 2-4 inches and up to 6+ inches along the Carolina coast. Wind gusts 40-50 mph are not out of the question late Thursday and Friday. Of course there will be changes with the track through the next couple of days, so stay with us for constant updates. Now would be a good time to make sure you have your supplies and plans in place! We are declaring Thursday and Friday as a First Warning Action Day. This is just to give you a heads up that we have the potential for disruptive weather. As a reminder, don’t focus on the category of the hurricane. The category only takes into effect the wind speed and damage due to winds. It doesn’t take into consideration the storm surge, flooding rains and tidal flooding. Pay more attention to the impacts from the storm itself.
We should start to clear out by late Friday as high pressure builds in behind Dorian. It will still be windy though.
Sunshine should break out just in time for the weekend.
Weather & Health
Pollen: Medium-High (Ragweed, Grasses)
UV Index: 6 (High)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon. A slow westward to west- northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.
**We are tracking four additional areas for potential tropical development**
An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. This system is producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity but does not have a well-defined surface center. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next few days and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Meteorologist April Loveland
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