Tracking Dorian…there is still uncertainty with the track of Dorian. Since we have a couple of days of fairly quiet weather ahead, it would be a good time to go over your hurricane plan and make sure you have your emergency kit stocked with water, canned food, batteries, etc. If we see impacts from Dorian, it would be on Thursday and Friday.
Swells from Dorian are already reaching us here in coastal Virginia and the OBX. Red flags will be flying at area beaches through the week due to a high risk of rip currents. The surf will get rougher as Dorian approaches.
Back to school for kids in Virginia on Tuesday! Temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70 as they head out to the bus. Some patchy fog is possible. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s. Keeping a slight 10 percent chance for a shower from a sea breeze, otherwise expect dry conditions as high pressure builds in.
The weather will continue to be fairly quiet on Wednesday. It will be a warmer with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Keeping a slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm due to a frontal system situated along the coast. The wind will continue to pick up and the surf will continue to get rougher as Dorian inches closer. We will also want to watch out for some tidal flooding at times of high tide.
***Potential impacts from Dorian will be felt on Thursday and Friday. We are still days out so forecasts may and will change.***
A cold front will move in and stall on Thursday. At the same time Dorian will be moving up the East Coast. Flooding rainfall, damaging wind gusts, rough surf, dangerous rip currents and tidal flooding will all be issues we will have to watch out for. Right now, we could see 2-4 inches and up to 6+ inches along the Carolina coast. Wind gusts 40-50+ mph are not out of the question late Thursday and Friday.
Of course there will be changes with the track through the next couple of days, so stay with us for constant updates. Now would be a good time to make sure you have your supplies and plans in place! As a reminder, don’t focus on the category of the hurricane. The category only takes into effect the wind speed and damage due to winds. It doesn’t take into consideration the storm surge, flooding rains and tidal flooding. Pay more attention to the impacts from the storm itself.
We should start to clear out by late Friday as high pressure builds in behind Dorian. It will still be windy though.
Sunshine should break out just in time for the weekend.
Weather & Health
Pollen: Medium-High (Ragweed, Grasses)
UV Index: 8 (Very High)
Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)
Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow northwestward motion is expected to occur early Tuesday. A turn toward the north is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.
**We are tracking four additional areas for potential tropical development**
An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms continues in association with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Meteorologist April Loveland
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