You will hear and see a lot of conversation about the weather for the upcoming weekend. Here are the short answers… Could we see snow? It’s possible. Could we see just rain? Absolutely.
Now to the details… An area of low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast, up the East Coast this weekend. A large part of the eastern U.S. will see rain/snow Saturday and/or Sunday. When it comes to snow chances for us, our temperatures are iffy. We are expecting high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30s.
Forecast computer models continue to shift and disagree when it comes to the location of the precipitation, the exact timing, the amount of precipitation, and (most important) the rain/snow transition line. The exact track of the area of low pressure will determine the finer details.
Let’s focus on the rain/snow line and compare the GFS model with the EURO model. The GFS keeps all rain along the VA & NC coast with snow mixing in closer to New Kent and Fredericksburg.
The EURO keeps rain in SE VA and NE NC but a transition to snow near Petersburg and Tappahannock.(See Note below)
As of now (Wednesday morning), I am expecting mostly rain for Hampton Roads and Northeastern North Carolina for the second half of Saturday and the first half of Sunday. The closer you get to Richmond, the better the chance you will see snow mix in. It is too early to talk about potential snow accumulation.
This system is still five days away. Expect forecasts to be updated and fine-tuned as we get closer to the weekend.
*Note: Forecast models update multiple times each day. Each model update can bring changes. There is no perfect forecast model. No model “always gets it right”. Look for consistency between forecast model updates and look for similarities between models. Just like hurricane spaghetti plots we want to see the group get closer together without wild swings back and forth.
-Meteorologist Myles Henderson