What are we tracking?
We are keeping an eye on an area of low pressure in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of northern California. This low is expected to move down the California coast, across northern Mexico and southern Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and over the Southeast. The exact track of this low will impact how much and what type of precipitation we see in VA and NC.
What could we see?
Computer forecast models are very split on the track of this low and the local impacts for us.
The European model is trending the low more to the north. Spreading more moisture across the region but keeping most of the snow west of I-95.
That would mean rain for us, starting late Saturday night and ending Sunday night. The best chance for snow or sleet to mix in would be near I-95 in Southampton, Sussex, Surry, and Northampton(NC).
Bottom line: A soggy and chilly Sunday.
The GFS model is trending the low more to the south. That would mean less moisture for us but more cold air pushing south.
That would mean a rain/sleet/snow mix for parts of eastern VA and NC on Sunday.
Bottom line: A wintry mix of precipitation
How much snow will we see?
It is way too early for any snowfall forecast. This system is thousands of miles away! A lot can change over 6 days as a system tracks across the country.
Could we see no snow? Yes.
Could we see snow accumulation? It’s possible.
As of now (Monday AM)… this is looking like mainly a rain event for us. We may see some sleet/snow mix in, but significant accumulation is unlikely. Could this change? Yes, stay tuned for updates.
Is this rare for us?
Not really. We do see snow in December, sometimes significant snow. Norfolk’s average monthly snowfall for December is 1.2″ (average is the keyword). That means some years we see little to no snow accumulation, but some years we see more. We have had big snows in December. Remember 2010? 13.4″ of snow on December 26th, 2010.
-Meteorologist Myles Henderson
