We continue to track an area of low pressure about 850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a little and winds near tropical storm force are occurring over a small area just north of the center.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, any additional increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next day or so as it moves WNW at 15 mph. There is a high (60%) chance of tropical formation in the next 2 days and a high (60%) chance in the next 5 days.
Should a tropical system form it would be the season’s third tropical depression. Should it reach tropical storm strength it would be named Bertha.