UPDATE: More on today’s wintry mix

snow-forecast2b

Wednesday Morning Update

The set up: The area of low pressure has formed along the Gulf Coast and will move up the East Coast today and tomorrow.

The timing: No big changes to the timing. A few flurries or showers could sneak in Wednesday morning but those chances are slim. The brunt of the precipitation will move in from south to north – the Albemarle of North Carolina around 3pm and most of Hampton Roads by 5pm or shortly after.

The mixture: Still expecting a mix of rain, sleet, and snow. This afternoon and evening expect mostly rain for coastal area, a sleet/snow mix near I-95 and a mix of rain/sleet/snow in the middle.

Snow ForecastThe totals: With more rain and sleet mixing in, snow totals will be lower.

Southside: Dusting or less

Inland Southside: 1” to 4” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Peninsula: Dusting to 4” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Middle Peninsula:  1” to 4” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Eastern Shore: Dusting or less

Albemarle NC: Dusting or less

OBX: Dusting or less

Inland NE NC: 1” to 4” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Ice: Along the rain/sleet/snow transition line we could see some freezing rain mix in as well. There is the potential for 0.1” or less of ice to accumulate along and just east of I-95.

Snow note: This will not be the dry “fluffy” snow like our last few systems. This will likely be a more heavy “wet” snow. Heavy snow plus the threat for ice means a higher potential for power issues especially areas closer to I-95.

Wind and flooding: Winds will increase today and will gust to the 30 mph range for today and tomorrow. Winds from the NE today could result in some minor tidal flooding at times of high tide. Winds will shift to the north and northwest on Thursday.

Wednesday AM Update

-Meteorologist Myles Henderson

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For the past week or so we have been watching the potential development of a midweek winter storm. We have seen a few “brush by” systems on Monday and Tuesday but this next system will likely be a large impact system for the Southeast., Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

The set up… An area of low pressure will form along the Gulf Coast today and track to the east. As this low crosses Florida it will turn and start to parallel the East Coast. This system will gain strength as it moves up the coast bringing plenty of moisture and wind up and down the coastal states.  The low will start near Florida on Wednesday and track into the New England states on Friday.

The timing… A few flurries or showers could sneak in Wednesday morning but those chances are slim. The brunt of the precipitation will move into Northeastern North Carolina Wednesday afternoon, move into Virginia by the late afternoon, and cover Hampton Roads by the evening hours.

The mixture… Notice I used the word “precipitation”. We are expecting a mixed bag of precip out of this system. The task of forecasting precip type is always a tricky one because a difference of just one degree could be the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow. All of HR and NE NC could see a sample of each of these but some types will be more likely in some areas versus others. The main transition line between frozen and liquid precip will likely set up through parts of inland NC, inland Southside, Peninsula, and over the Chesapeake Bay. Areas east of the line will see mostly rain. (Note: mostly does not equal all. Some snow is still possible) Areas west of the line will see mostly snow. Along the line we will see a mix of rain, snow, and sleet. The line will slowly move northwest through Wednesday evening. All of HR and NE NC should see all rain by the overnight and for most of Thursday. As the system moves up the coast and starts to exit Thursday evening we could see some colder air wrap in on the back side of the low. That could mean a brief transition back to snow before skies clear.

Snow ForecastThe totals… Most of HR and NE NC will see less that 5” of snow accumulation. Our highest totals will be near I-95 and our lowest totals near the coast. The real “bulls eye” from this system will be in Central VA where over a foot is possible. Here is the breakdown for our area:

Southside: 1” or less

Inland Southside: 1” to 5” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Peninsula: 1” to 5” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Middle Peninsula:  3” to 6” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Eastern Shore: 1” to 2” (or less if more rain mixes in)

Albemarle NC: 1” or less

OBX: Little to nothing

Inland NE NC: 1” to 5” (higher totals west, lower totals east)

Ice… Along the rain/sleet/snow transition line we could see some freezing rain mix in as well. There is the potential for 0.1” or less of ice to accumulate along a line from Northampton, NC to Southampton to Isle of Wight to Newport News/York to the northern Eastern Shore.  Typically a tenth of an inch of ice does not cause major issues but we are keeping a close eye on the potential for more, which could be problematic.

Something to watch for… As the system moves in, watch for changes in the rain/sleet/snow transition line. If this line moves farther inland, more of us will see rain. If this line moves farther east, more of us will see snow and snowfall totals will be higher.

Snow note… This will not be the dry “fluffy” snow like our last few systems. This will likely be a more heavy “wet” snow. Heavy snow equals more weight on trees and higher potential for power issues.

Tuesday AM Update

-Meteorologist Myles Henderson

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